2012 Predictions

Steve Engbloom from Blog Red Machine has posted some very interesting posts lately regarding Cincinnati Reds starting pitchers in 2012. So far he has talked about Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto. If you have time, I highly recommend you read them.

The posts were brought on by predictions made by Bill James on FanGraphs. He predicted how the Reds pitchers will do in 2012. Predictions that are a little scary to look at. I thought I would share them and see what everyone else thought. [Source] More information on Bill James predictions.

Johnny Cueto 11-11
Mat Latos 15-9
Bronson Arroyo 11-12
Homer Bailey 9-10
Mike Leake 9-10
Aroldis Chapman 3-3

Sean Marshall 5-4
Bill Bray 3-2
Nick Masset 3-4
Logan Ondrusek 3-2
Sam LeCure 4-5
Jose Arredondo 4-3
Carlos Fisher N/A
Josh Judy N/A

If these predictions are close that would mean the team would roughly be a .500 ball club in 2012. Of course these predictions were made before Sean Marshall and Mat Latos joined the team but since the Reds have not really touched their position players except losing Ramon Hernandez and Edgar Renteria it makes me wonder if the two new pitchers will make much of a difference. A lot of people think that Mat Latos and Sean Marshall will make a huge difference to the team, while others think the Reds still need a lot more in order to make the playoffs.

Here are my 2012 predictions: (Remember now, I am no Bill James. I am just a crazy fan who loves the Reds!)

Johnny Cueto 12-9
Mat Latos 19-7
Bronson Arroyo 15-10
Homer Bailey 7-9
Mike Leake 11-8
Aroldis Chapman 9-7

Sean Marshall 5-2
Bill Bray 4-2
Nick Masset 3-3
Logan Ondrusek 1-1
Sam LeCure 7-5
Jose Arredondo 4-4
Carlos Fisher 0-1
Josh Judy 1-1


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