Steve Engbloom from Blog Red Machine has posted some very interesting posts lately regarding Cincinnati Reds starting pitchers in 2012. So far he has talked about Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto. If you have time, I highly recommend you read them.
The posts were brought on by predictions made by Bill James on FanGraphs. He predicted how the Reds pitchers will do in 2012. Predictions that are a little scary to look at. I thought I would share them and see what everyone else thought. [Source] More information on Bill James predictions.
If these predictions are close that would mean the team would roughly be a .500 ball club in 2012. Of course these predictions were made before Sean Marshall and Mat Latos joined the team but since the Reds have not really touched their position players except losing Ramon Hernandez and Edgar Renteria it makes me wonder if the two new pitchers will make much of a difference. A lot of people think that Mat Latos and Sean Marshall will make a huge difference to the team, while others think the Reds still need a lot more in order to make the playoffs.
Here are my 2012 predictions: (Remember now, I am no Bill James. I am just a crazy fan who loves the Reds!)
When it came to Reds pitching in 2011 there were a lot of hits and misses. I wanted to see how well the pitchers did with their fastball. Now many will say that stats will never help a person determine who’s fastball is the best but FanGraphs has done a pretty good job to give you a rough idea.
Johnny Cueto had the best fastball with 13.3 wFB and 1.00 wFB/C. Logan Ondrusek had a 5.7 wFB with 1.65 wFB/C. Aroldis Chapman had 5.1 wFB and a 0.69 wFB/C. Bill Bray also did well with his fastball in 2011 with a 4.4 wFB and 1.08 wFB/C. Sam LeCure did pretty good with his fastball to with a 2.5 wFB and 0.33 wFB/C. Mike Leake was the only other pitcher throwing a good fastball in 2011 with 1.7 wFB and 0.19 wFB/C. Jose Arredondo, Jeremy Horst and Carlos Fisher were the only other pitchers with + ranked fastballs for the Reds. (All under 1.0)
Bronson Arroyo had the worst with -24.3 wFB and -1.71 wFB/C while Edinson Volquez came close with a -23.4 wFB and -2.42 wFB/C. Homer Bailey got the third worst fastball with -11.2 wFB and -0.94 wFB/C.
How does wFB and wFB/C work? FanGraph
I would like to give credit to MLBdirt.com with The Worst Pitches of 2011 and The Best Pitches of 2011 for the great information about the best and worst of all Major League Baseball in 2011. These posts inspired me to look further into the Reds pitching.