I did some research today and thought I would share why I think Yonder Alonso should not be traded this offseason. I will show his minor league stats and also compare him to Joey Votto and see what Votto got in the minors also.
First off, Yonder Alonso was drafted by the Reds in the 1st round (7th) in the 2005 Amateur Draft. Joey Votto was drafted in the 2nd round (44th) of the 2002 Amateur Draft. Alonso was rated #35 prospect pre-2009, #45 pre-2010 and #73 pre-2011. Votto was rated #43 pre-2007 and #44 pre-2008.
In four seasons in the Minors Alonso had a .293 BA, .370 OBP, .466 SLG, and .837 OPS with 36 HR, 179 RBIs, 148 BB, 203 SO in 1340 PA.
4 Seasons 1340 .293 .370 .466 .837 AA (2 seasons) AA 242 .282 .380 .432 .812 AAA (2 seasons) AAA 854 .296 .364 .478 .842 A+ (2 seasons) A+ 226 .304 .389 .485 .874 Rk (1 season) Rk 18 .133 .278 .133 .411
Joey Votto on the other hand played 7 seasons in the minors and got a .289 BA, .386 OBP, .477 SLG and .862 OPS with 97 HR, 438 RBIs, 404 BB, 665 SO in 3016 PA.
7 Seasons 3016 .289 .386 .477 .862 A (3 seasons) A 715 .280 .397 .425 .822 A+ (3 seasons) A+ 628 .262 .338 .444 .782 Rk (2 seasons) Rk 503 .296 .408 .506 .914 AA (1 season) AA 590 .319 .408 .547 .956 AAA (1 season) AAA 580 .294 .381 .478 .859
It was said that Yonder Alonso would be training to play LF for the Reds in 2012 which would bring even more value for him later on after he gets one full season. And as we all know, it has already been reported that Joey Votto will not be returning to the Reds after his contract runs out. Keeping Yonder Alonso so then he can play 1B when Votto does leave is the best bet. And it gives the Reds the oppurtunity to shop Votto away at the trade deadline either bringing in young prospects or important pieces to the puzzle to help them get an extra push into the playoffs. I think they would be able to get their top of the rotation starter and then some if they offered someone like Joey Votto.
I heard a rumor at the trade deadline in 2011 that Toronto Blue Jays and Cincinnati Reds were talking about a deal that would involve Joey Votto and Jose Bautista but it never happened because the Blue Jays were asking for more. One thing I am hoping is that scouts and front offices have not hurt Joey Votto’s value by saying, “he is only hitting that good because of Great American Ball Park.” Sure any average player can become a better hitter by playing in that park but that should not bring his value down to the point where teams are wanting a top prospect with him in order to trade their best player. In my mind, the Reds made the right decision by not trading him with another player for Bautista. And this also means they should not trade away Yonder Alonso until they get at least one full season out of him to see what he can do. Many will say that if he does not do well then his value will drop a lot but I would rather take that chance than trade him and watch him become an All-Star in his first season for some other team. (All of our luck a National League team.)
Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see Joey Votto stay with the Reds for the rest of his career but if he has not intention of re-signing I am all for trading him away before he becomes a free agent. At least this way the Reds would have a choice to where he would play or influence him to sign with the team they trade with and I hope that would be in the American League. I really would hate to see him sign in the offseason with a National League Central team.
Ryan Hanigan had a 1.09 BB/K putting him 6th out of all 2011 hitters who saw more than 150 PA (304 PA) he had 35 walks and 32 strike outs. The other 5 ahead of him are Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Alberto Callaspo, Nick Punto and Jose Bautista.
In his career (287 games) he has 116 walks with 95 strike outs in 949 PA. Now that he will not be sharing time with Ramon Hernandez he should get a lot more plate appearances and these numbers should get even better. He has a .371 career OBP already and I feel he would make a great number two hitter in the batting order with Brandon Phillips being number one then Joey Votto playing his usual third in the order. This would then open up the 8 spot for strike out king, Drew Stubbs who would be good if he could get on base and then have the pitcher bunt him over to second or even third if he already stole a base before the bunt. He would bat 7th if Paul Janish is the SS.
Bill James is predicting Ryan Hanigan will play in 108 games in 2012 with 404 PA, 47 BB and 40 SO. I predict he would do a lot better if Dusty Baker did put him in the number two spot after Brandon Phillips. Of course he does not have great speed but he would get on base and that is what they need for Joey Votto to get more RBIs and getting Brandon Phillips to second or third should be the main goal for 2012. In 2011 Hanigan only grounded into 3 double plays which would also help out when getting guys on base for Joey Votto.